Gov.-elect John Kasich’s victory over Democratic incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland Tuesday reaffirms a strongly held belief that a Republican candidate must win — and win big — in Warren and Butler counties to take an elected office.

With a margin of victory of 33,380 votes in Butler County and 31,603 votes in Warren County, two-thirds of Kasich’s 97,000-vote victory came from these two counties. Kasich received 62 percent of the vote in Butler County and 68 percent in Warren, compared to just 49.3 percent of the vote statewide.

By comparison, in 2006, Strickland failed to carry either Warren or Butler County, but the margin of defeat to then-candidate Ken Blackwell were much smaller.

In the 2006 election, Strickland lost Butler County by 8,000 votes and earned 45 percent of the vote. He lost Warren County by 12,000 votes and earned 40 percent of the vote.

“If a Republican running for a statewide office wants to win, it has become clear they need to run up votes in Clermont, Warren and Butler counties,” said David Fornshell, chair of the Warren County Republican Party. “Warren County is the heart of the Republican vote.”

Dave Kern, Butler County Republican Party executive committee chairman, said southwest Ohio was needed to “counter the more liberal parts of the state.”

“We down here in Butler County and in southwest Ohio are well aware of our part of the state,” Kern said. “We know of and have been reminded of our importance in the 2004 presidential election. We knew it was our duty, our goal to try to emulate that again.”

Both Kasich and Strickland frequently traveled to the area. Although Kasich averaged about one visit a month to Warren County, he “front-loaded” the visits, travelling often during the early part of the election and then returning for two visits in the week before Tuesday’s vote, according to Fornshell.

“It’s just Politics 101,” Fornshell said. “Shore up your biggest area of support early and then circle back to your base right before election time.”

Strickland also made frequent trips to the area, hoping to seize upon his endorsement by the NRA to win voter approval.

Jocelyn Bucaro, Butler County Democratic Party executive committee chairwoman, said Strickland’s defeat was a more systemic opposition coming from rural areas than from any particular region.

“If you look at the numbers, Republicans turned out in large numbers in rural and suburban areas across the state,” Bucaro said. “It’s not unique to this area, it happened all over the state, and obviously that helped John Kasich and hurt Gov. Strickland.”

Warren County Democratic Party Chairwoman Bethe Goldenfield said even she was unsure how to change the tide of red that has historically washed over the neighboring counties.

“People are so ingrained with their thinking its difficult to change their mentality, especially with how contentious politics have become right now,” Goldenfield said.