DAYTON — Mike Turner has run for U.S. Congress five times, winning all five, and none of the races have been close, with a 17-point margin in 2006 serving as the Republican’s closest call.

His Democratic challenger this year, Sharen Neuhardt, and other Democrats say the new 10th District is competitive and they plan to put more money in the race this year.

Neuhardt claimed some momentum this spring when data revealed that she had raised $224,903 to Turner’s $111,583 during the quarter ending March 31. On the heels of that, and given the lack of close districts in Ohio, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee listed the contest as one of its “emerging races.”

The committee reserved more than $330,000 in October television ad time in Dayton. Neuhardt said the DCCC is also paying the bill for one of her field staffers. Fundraising data for the new quarter is expected next week.

The new 10th District will include Greene and northern Fayette County, currently represented by Steve Austria; parts of Huber Heights, Dayton and Riverside, now represented by House Speaker John Boehner; and the rest of Montgomery County, which is represented today by Turner. In addition to Turner and Neuhardt, Libertarian David Harlow is also on the ballot.

“You ask people, ‘Do you remember the last time Montgomery County was all together in one district, and (Democrat) Tony Hall represented it for 24 years?’ And the light bulbs start going off in people’s minds,” Neuhardt said.

Turner said despite the new district lines, he doesn’t expect this election to be different from past years.

“I think the community is very embracing of my record of accomplishment, and I see only continued support, as a result of my visible accomplishments, both in downtown Dayton as mayor, as a Congressman for Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, and as being part of the economic development team to create jobs.”

Neuhardt’s campaign also is challenging Turner on his economic record, but they admitted last week that they still have an uphill battle, and some political experts agree.

Mark Caleb Smith, director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University, said incumbents typically win more than 90 percent of U.S. House elections.

“They tend to struggle when there is a scandal, when they take unpopular political positions, or when the political winds simply blow against them,” Smith said. “None of these factors are working against Rep. Turner.”

Neuhardt said one thing working against Turner is the new makeup of the district, which she said is split about 52 percent Republican and 48 percent Democrat. She said the fact that she grew up and worked in Dayton, but now lives in Greene County makes her a good fit. But Turner has reason to be confident with the district, too, having won two races for mayor of Democratic-leaning Dayton in 1993 and 1997.

Examining previous election results in the area that will make up the 10th district shows some balance. Both the 2008 Obama-McCain presidential race and the 2006 Sherrod Brown-Mike DeWine U.S. Senate race were virtual dead heats in the new district. John Kasich won the area of the new district in the 2010 governor battle, but voters there turned around in 2011 and strongly rejected Kasich’s Senate Bill 5 union reforms.

Dan Tokaji, an Ohio State University law professor and election analyst, said the new 10th District is more balanced between Republicans and Democrats than Turner’s 3rd District is today, but he put the new ratio at 54 to 46.

“I don’t think this is really a very competitive district, but it’s one of the closer ones we’ve got,’ he said. “It’s one of the three closest (of 16 statewide), and that’s pathetic. There are basically no districts that are split down the middle between Republicans and Democrats.”

Turner said he is less concerned about the party breakdown.

“I approach every year and every election as if people vote for the person, not the party,” he said.

Smith said that’s where Turner has the advantage, as he has strong name recognition in the area and a record of congressional accomplishment to point to.

Neuhardt, meanwhile, lost to Steve Austria in her previous run for Congress, in 2008, and is not widely known. An attorney with Thompson Hine, Neuhardt, 60, said her 2008 campaign experience is a big asset, adding that she thinks she can win Republican votes.

“I think people will look at me and say, hey, she’s a business lawyer, she knows jobs, she doesn’t look like a flaming liberal ... that’s not a bad option,” Neuhardt said.

She also pointed to federal statistics showing the Dayton region has lost thousands of jobs during Turner’s time in Washington, saying “Mike Turner’s got to own what’s gone on here.”

Turner repeatedly turns discussions about the district toward Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, the No. 1 economic engine of the region.

There are at least 7,000 more jobs “inside the fence” today than when Turner took office in 2003, according to base officials, and Turner said his “leadership role on the Armed Services Committee and my past experience defending the base” are crucial.

“His new district is likely more politically competitive,” Smith said. “... It is quite possible that Neuhardt can manufacture an upset, but my guess is that unexpected things will have to occur between now an November for that to happen.”