It may be a brand new year, but state officials say Ohioans can expect the same old stagnant job market for some months to come.

Officials at the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services say job losses may be bottoming out, but the recovery will continue to be weak for at least the first half of 2011. But some experts look for a stronger upswing in the second half.

Employers remain skittish about hiring until there’s a strong rebound in consumer demand, but that demand will be soft until the job market improves, said Lewis Horner, the ODJFS work force research chief.

“That’s kind of circular,” he said. “Everybody’s kind of waiting for everybody else.”

The department’s index of leading economic indicators for November, the most recent available, showed a 0.4 percent decrease to 83.6 percent, which “suggests employment declines going into winter.” Payroll slid 0.2 percent, initial unemployment insurance claims were up and the valuation for new housing permits fell.

Ohio’s unemployment rate dipped from 9.9 percent in October to 9.8 percent in November, but the number of jobs decreased.

But a market outlook document prepared by PNC Bank offers hope that meaningful recovery is on the horizon.

“Broader job growth ... will begin in mid-2011 after consumer and business confidence levels find their footing,” PNC said. “Expect a slow but steady recovery in southwest Ohio through the coming year.”

Despite some hopeful signs, Ohio economists aren’t brimming with optimism about the jobs outlook for 2011.

The state’s unemployment rate for November fell for the eighth straight month, to 9.8 percent, but the number of jobs continues to shrink.

“Job destruction continues in Ohio,” economic analyst George Zeller of Cleveland said, and “the lengthy 2000-2010 period of job loss in Ohio has still not come to an end.”

The Ohio Department of Job & Family Services agreed that the economic devastation that claimed almost 10 percent of Ohio’s jobs between 2000-2009 isn’t over, although OJFS official Lewis Horner said “it doesn’t look like we’re going to fall much farther.”

The state’s total employment decreased by 7,800, from 5,022,800 in October to 5,015,000 in November, the department reported.

The economy is still stuck in a spiral in which high joblessness has hurt consumer confidence, and the resulting sluggish sales are making employers nervous about hiring, said Horner, chief of work force research. “We might have to wait until some of these businesses exhaust their inventories” before hiring resumes, he said.

While some job categories are faring better than others, Horner said “I don’t expect anything to skyrocket” in the new year. ODJFS projects that “employment, recruitment and placement specialists” will be Ohio’s fastest-growing occupations from fall 2009 to fall 2011, as employers seek temporary workers rather than making the commitment to hire.

In a market outlook report for southwest Ohio, PNC Bank predicts consumer and business confidence will improve by mid-year and “spending and investment can then jumpstart hiring in the local economy.” It also said “the worst is past for income trends. Wage gains will strengthen along with the job market, beginning in earnest by mid-2011.”

PNC also contends that Ohio never experienced a housing bubble, so “residents have not had to deal with as severe a loss of home equity. This will help to grease the wheels of consumer spending and borrowing as the market area continues its recovery.”

Robert Premus, economics professor at Wright State University, said that a weaker U.S. dollar on foreign currency markets is good for manufacturing jobs in Ohio. The strong dollar was “devastating for the Midwest,” making the region less competitive in the global marketplace, he said. “Now that the dollar is down, manufacturing is up and exports are coming back. We’re poised for a continuation of growth.”

But ODJFS spokesman Ben Johnson cautioned that the increase in manufacturing jobs must be seen in perspective. The state gained 20,700 manufacturing jobs since December 2009, “but that’s in a labor force of 5 million,” he said.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2264 or tbeyerlein@Dayton DailyNews.com.